Category Archives: Inflation

The Namibian annual inflation rate increased to 3.7% in December, up from 3.3% in November. On a month on month basis prices rose by 0.2% for the third consecutive month. On a year on year basis, five of the twelve basket categories grew at a slower rate in December than in November while the seven remaining categories accelerated, pushing up overall inflation, while transport prices contracted, although at a slower pace. Year on year inflation exceeded the 12-month average for the first time in 16 months, with the effects of the drop in the price of oil over the past year and the knock on effects thereof starting to wear out.

The two heavy weighted categories in the basket that experienced accelerated annual inflation were alcoholic beverages & tobacco, and housing utilities. Alcoholic beverages & tobacco inflation was driven by the price increases of alcoholic beverages accelerating to 7.7% year on year over the festive season, up from 5.9% in November, slightly offset by inflation for tobacco that eased by 0.7pps. Accelerating price increases in the housing utilities category was largely driven by electricity, gas & other fuel prices rising relatively more quickly, while price inflation of water supply and other municipal services were unchanged at 10.5% year on year in December.

The easing in food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation was due to inflation of the majority of the sub-components slowing down, with meat prices rising relatively less quickly, followed by fruit, soft drinks & juices as well as bread & cereals price inflation slowing down.

The only category that experienced a price contraction on an annual basis was transport, however, the transport deflation slowed when compared to November. The transport basket category continues to be a drag on overall inflation, exhibiting year on year inflation of -0.3% and month on month inflation of -0.01%. Transport is the third largest basket category by weighting and as such has a large impact on overall inflation. The deflation experienced by this basket category is largely due to the operation of personal transportation equipment becoming less expensive. Prolonged lower fuel prices due to the oil rout have provided consumers with some respite worldwide and to a large extent in Namibia as well. The effects of cheap transportation flow through to many other basket categories and in this way contribute to lower overall inflation.

We expect inflation to remain low as oil prices have fallen further during January. However, we expect inflation to pick up in the first half of 2016 as the full benefit of cheap oil is reached and the weak currency causes import prices to rise. Looming drought conditions as well as increasing utilities costs should further see inflation pick up in basket categories such as food and non-alcoholic beverages, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco.

The Namibian annual inflation rate decreased slightly to 3.3% in November, down from 3.4% in October. On a month on month basis prices rose by 0.2% again when compared to October. On a year on year basis, the basket categories food and non-alcoholic beverages, health and communication grew at a faster rate in November than in October while the other categories slowed somewhat dragging down overall inflation, with transport and clothing prices contracting. Year on year inflation is again well below average, largely due to a drop in the price of oil over the past year, and the knock on effects this has on prices. 12 month average inflation reached a new low of 3.5%, and has been coming down steadily since November 2014.

The three basket categories that experienced accelerated annual inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages, health and communication. Accelerating price increases in the food and non-alcoholic beverages basket category was largely driven by fruit and vegetables prices rising relatively more quickly, followed by mineral water, soft drinks and juices as well as oils and fats and bread and cereals price inflation accelerating. The food price increases could largely be ascribed to the drought currently experienced in Namibia and South Africa. Health prices experienced a price increase of 5.8% year on year and 0.4% month on month

The only two categories that experienced price contractions on an annual basis were clothing and foot wear and transport, however, transport deflation decreased at a slower pace when compared to October. Price decreases in the clothing and foot wear basket category was spread relatively evenly amongst the components of this category.

The transport basket category continues to be a drag on overall inflation, exhibiting year on year inflation of -1.6% and month on month inflation of 0.02%. Transport is the third largest basket category by weighting and as such has a large impact on overall inflation. The deflation experienced by this basket category is largely due to the operation of personal transportation equipment becoming less expensive. Prolonged lower fuel prices due to the oil rout have provided consumers with some respite worldwide and to a large extent in Namibia. The effects of cheap transportation flow through to many other basket categories and in this way contributes to lower overall inflation.

We expect inflation to remain low for the rest of the year as oil prices fell further during December. However, we expect inflation to pick up in the first half of 2016 as the full benefit of cheap oil is reached and the weak currency causes import prices to rise. Looming drought conditions as well as increasing utilities costs should further see inflation pick up in basket categories such as food and non-alcoholic beverages, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco.

The Namibian annual inflation rate increased slightly to 3.4% in October, up from 3.3% in September. On a month on month basis prices rose by 0.2% compared to 0.1% in September. On a year on year basis, the basket categories food, alcoholic beverages, housing utilities and hotels grew at a faster rate in October than in September while the other categories slowed somewhat dragging down overall inflation. Year on year inflation is again well below average, largely due to a drop in the price of oil over the past year, and the knock on effects this has on prices, as well as the heavy weighted basket items (food and non-alcoholic beverages and housing utilities) experiencing prolonged inflation below the basket average. 12 month average inflation reached a new low of 3.6%, and has been coming down steadily since November 2014.

The five basket categories that experienced accelerated annual inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, and health, as well as hotels, cafes and restaurants. Accelerating price increases in the food and non-alcoholic beverages basket category was driven by sugar, honey and confectionery prices rising relatively more quickly, followed by coffee, tea and cocoa as well as oils and fats price inflation accelerating. Faster price increases in the clothing and foot wear basket category was spread relatively evenly amongst the components of this category. All components within the housing utilities category, except water supply and sewage services contributed to the basket’s accelerating pace of inflation. Health prices experienced a price increase of 5.8% year on year and 0.4% month on month.

The transport basket category continues to be a drag on overall inflation, exhibiting year on year inflation of -2.4% and month on month inflation of -0.2%. Transport is the third largest basket category by weighting and as such has a large impact on overall inflation. The deflation experienced by this basket category is largely due to the operation of personal transportation equipment becoming less expensive. Prolonged lower fuel prices due to the oil rout have provided consumers with some respite worldwide and to a large extent in Namibia. The effects of cheap transportation flow through to many other basket categories and in this way contributes to lower overall inflation.

We continue to expect inflation to pick up towards year end as the full benefit of cheap oil is reach and the weak currency causes import prices to rise. Looming drought conditions as well as increasing utilities costs should further see inflation pick up in basket categories such as food and non-alcoholic beverages, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco.