Building Plans – March 2019

A total of 158 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in March, 14 fewer than the 172 approvals recorded in February. The value of approvals was N$44.5 million lower at N$128.6 million in March, a 25.7% m/m decrease. The number of completions for the month of March stood at 37, valued at N$75.0 million. The year-to-date value of approved building plans reached N$574.5 million, 33.7% higher than in the first quarter of 2018. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,194 building plans have been approved as at the end of March, an increase of 14.5% y/y. The 12-month cumulative value of plans approved reached approximately N$1.98 billion, a decrease of 11.0% y/y.

Additions to properties made up 127 of the 158 approved building plans recorded in March. This is a 7.3% m/m decrease in additions from the 137 additions recorded in February. Year-to-date 395 additions to properties have been approved with a value of N$240.8 million, a 25.7% y/y drop in terms of value.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 28 approvals registered in March, a 12.5% m/m decrease compared to the 32 residential units approved in February. In value terms, N$32.1 million worth of residential units were approved in March, 22.5% less than the N$41.4 million worth of residential approvals in February. 89 New residential units have been approved in the first quarter of 2019, 48% more than during the corresponding period in 2018. The year-to-date value of residential approvals reached N$241.3 million, 198.6% higher than during the first quarter of 2018.

Commercial and industrial building plans approved in March amounted to 3 units, worth N$6.1 million. This is the same number of units approved as in the prior month, but a decrease of 62.4% m/m and 15.9% y/y in value terms. Year-to-date, 8 plans for commercial and industrial purposes have been approved, valued at N$92.4 million. On a rolling 12-month perspective the number of commercial and industrial approvals have slowed to 38 units as at March, compared to the 54 approved over the corresponding period a year ago.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved increased by 14.5% as at the end of March when compared to the corresponding period in 2018. A total of 2,194 building plans to the value of N$1.98 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents a decrease in value of 11.0% y/y. The number of building plans approved, on a cumulative 12-month basis, has been increasing steadily since December 2017, but the value of cumulative plans has been decreasing since May 2018. We expect the economy, and construction activity as a result, to remain under pressure over the short-term, as both consumer and business confidence remains low.

Building Plans – February 2019

A total of 172 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in February. This is a slight increase in the number of plans approved on a monthly basis when compared to the 162 building plans approved in January. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$173.2 million, a decrease of N$99.5 million compared to last month. 49 Buildings with a value of N$34.36 million were completed during February. The year-to-date value of approved building plans currently stands at N$445.8 million, 28.4% higher than the corresponding period in 2018. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,165 building plans worth approximately N$1.94 billion were approved, an increase in number of 9.4% y/y, but a decrease of 13.8% in value terms over the prior 12-month period.

The largest portion of building plan approvals was once again made up of additions to properties, from both a number and value perspective. 137 additions were approved in February, almost matching the number of additions approved in January. Year-to-date 268 additions to properties have been approved with a cumulative value of N$150.3 million, a decline of 45.0% y/y in terms of value compared to the same period in 2018.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number of building plans approved with 32 approvals registered in February, 3 more than in January. 61 new residential units worth N$209.3 have been approved year-to-date, an increase of 271.8% when compared to the value of approvals in the corresponding period last year. This increase is, however, off of a low base figure in 2018.

3 Commercial and industrial building plans were approved in February, worth N$16.3 million. This is one more than in the prior month, bringing the total number of commercial approvals for 2019 to 5. In value terms, commercial building plan approvals decreased by 76.8% m/m, but increased 186.5% y/y. On a 12 month-cumulative basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals has decreased by 23.5% y/y in February to 39 units, worth approximately N$449.0 million, a decrease of 33.3% in value terms over the prior 12-month period.

During the last 12 months 2,165 building plans have been approved, increasing by 9.4% compared to February 2018. These approvals amounted to N$1.94 billion, which is a decrease in value of 13.8% y/y. The overall decrease in value of cumulative plans approved is concerning, as this shows a considerable decrease of construction activity in the city, especially when taking into account that the measure is in nominal value terms and does not account for inflation.

Growth in commercial and industrial construction activity remains extremely subdued as the decrease (on a 12-month cumulative basis) in credit extended to corporates also reflects. It is evident from the commercial figures that business confidence is low, as businesses are not investing in expansionary projects and, as a result, the economy is likely to remain under pressure over the short-term.

Building Plans – January 2019

A total of 162 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in January, representing a 78.0% m/m increase from the 91 in December. The value of building plans approved increased by N$207.8 million from N$64.9 million in December to N$272.7 million in January. 87 Buildings with a value of N$54.2 million were completed in January, versus 78 buildings worth N$16.4 million completed in December. January 2019 is off to a slightly better start in terms of both number and value of approvals, compared to January 2018 when 153 building plans worth N$269.3 million got the nod. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,127 building plans worth approximately N$1.84 billion were approved, an increase in number of 11.8% y/y, but a decrease of 16.3% in value terms over the prior 12-month period.

In terms of number of approvals, additions to properties made up the largest portion of approvals. For the month of January, 131 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$34.8 million, N$197.9 million less in value terms than in January 2018, but 2 more than the number of additions observed in the first month of 2018.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the total number of building plans approved in January. 29 new units worth N$167.9 million were approved in January, representing a 580.2% increase from the N$24.7 million approved in the first month of 2018. It is however worth noting that one of these approvals is a N$125.0 million residential project approved for the city centre.

The number of commercial and industrial units approved in January only amounted to 2, valued at N$70.0 million. This compares to 7 units valued at N$11.9 million approved in January 2018. On average over the last 20 years, 4 commercial units valued at N$19.6 million were approved in the first month of the year.

The 12-month cumulative number of building plans approved ticked up slightly in January with an 11.8% y/y increase. A total of 2,127 building plans to the value of N$1.8 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents a decrease in value terms of 16.3% y/y. The majority of these approvals are additions to properties which are typically of low relative value. Growth in commercial and industrial construction activity remains extremely subdued as the decrease (on a 12-month cumulative basis) in credit extended to corporates also reflects.

With government still in a fiscal consolidation cycle and spending less on capital and infrastructure projects, we expect the sector to remain under pressure for most part of the year. The mid-term budget released late last year pointed to little additional public funds flowing into the sector. In fact, funds were prioritised to operational expenditure with the African Development Bank loan replacing the funding for larger infrastructure projects in 2019. Infrastructure funding from outside Namibia as well as public private partnerships are now necessary to drive the infrastructure investment that Namibia so desperately needs. We may see more efforts to attract and deploy funds from external sources in 2019 due to it being an election year, which may provide some potential for industry growth.