Building Plans – June 2022

The City of Windhoek approved a total of 227 building plans in June, representing a 55.5% m/m increase from the 146 building plans approved in May. In value terms, the approvals were valued at N$398.2 million, a 237.2% m/m increase from the N$118.1 million approved in May. Year-to-date 1,139 building plans were approved worth N$1.03 billion, a 1.1% y/y increase in the number of plans approved, and a 10% y/y increase in value terms. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,463 buildings with a value of N$2.05 billion were approved, a 2.8% decrease in the number of plans approved but a 4.4% increase in value terms over the prior 12-month period. 73 building plans worth N$43.8 million were completed during the month.

Additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of the building plans approved both in terms of the number and the value of plans approved. For the month of June, 153 additions to properties were approved valued at N$328.4 million, the largest single month approval in value terms ever recorded. The value of the additions approved is 384.5% higher than last month and 835.1% higher than during the same month last year. It is however worth pointing out that the high value in additions recorded in June stems from a single property. If excluded, the value of additions in June amounts to N$48.2 million, representing a 29% m/m decline from the N$67.8 million worth of additions approved in May and a 37% increase compared to June last year. 24 Additions worth N$7.07 million were completed during June, a 19.6% m/m increase in terms of the value of additions completed.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number and value of building plans approved with 69 approvals registered in June compared to 30 in May. In value terms N$55.0 million worth of residential units were approved in June, a 17.1% m/m increase. On a year-on-year basis, the value of approvals is however 28.8% lower than registered in June last year. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units approved decreased by 13% y/y to 790. Further declines in these numbers are expected given the current inflationary environment and the resultant rise in building costs which makes building new residential properties less affordable when compared to existing properties in the market. 47 New residential units worth N$31.8 million were completed during June, a 28.4% m/m increase in terms of the value of the residential units completed.

5 New commercial units valued at N$14.8 million were approved in June, compared to 2 units worth N$3.35 million approved in May and 3 units worth N$16.0 million approved in June 2021. Year-to-date there have been 17 commercial building approvals valued at N$57.3 million, which translates to a 10.5% y/y decrease in the number of plans approved and a 14.6% y/y decrease in value terms. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals remained steady at 33 units worth N$161.6 million, compared to the 32 units approved worth N$146.1 million over the corresponding period a year ago. 2 Commercial and industrial units worth N$4.9 million were completed in June.

Approved building plans increased by 4.4% y/y in value terms to N$2.05 billion on a 12-month cumulative basis. The improvement in the cumulative value of building plans observed in June is however mainly due to a single addition worth over N$280 million as mentioned earlier – it is unlikely that the value of approvals seen in June will be sustained in the foreseeable months. Therefore, tapering in the 12-month cumulative value of building plan approvals is expected over the ensuing months. Building plans completed continue to trend downward in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms as illustrated below. Completed building plans decreased by 29.2% y/y in value terms to N$984.9 million on a 12-month cumulative basis. Given that building plan approvals is a leading indicator of economic activity in the country, the data above, bar the single significant addition mentioned, implies that Namibian’s economy is still enduring tough times.

Building Plans – May 2022

A total of 146 building plans were approved by the City of Windhoek in May, representing a 15.6% m/m decrease from the 173 building plans approved in April. In value terms, the approvals were valued at N$118.1 million, an 11.4% m/m increase from the N$106.0 million approved in April. Year-to-date 912 building plans were approved worth N$637.1 million, a 9.5% y/y decrease in the number of plans approved and a 21.6% y/y decrease in value terms. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, 2,355 buildings with a value of N$1.79 billion were approved, a 12.3% decrease in the number of plans approved and an 11.3% decrease in value terms over the prior 12-month period. 43 building plans worth N$55.7 million were completed during the month.

In terms of both the number and value of approvals, additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of approvals. For the month of May, 114 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$67.8 million, the same number of approvals recorded in April. The value of the additions approved is 7.7% higher than last month and 22.4% higher than during the same month last year. 13 Additions worth N$5.9 million were completed during the month.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number and value of building plans approved with 30 approvals registered in May, 28 fewer than in April. In value terms N$47.0 million worth of residential units were approved in May, a 10.1% m/m increase. On a year-on-year basis, the value of approvals is however 49.3% lower than registered in May 2021. On a 12-month cumulative basis, the number of residential units approved decreased by 17.3% y/y to 772, the lowest since February 2021. 29 New residential units worth N$24.8 million were completed in May.

2 New commercial units valued at N$3.4 million were approved in May, compared to 1 approval worth N$380,00 in April and 4 units worth N$25.0 million approved in May 2021. Year-to-date there have been 12 commercial building approvals valued at N$42.5 million, which translates to a 25.0% y/y decrease in the number of plans approved and a 16.8% y/y decrease in value terms. On a rolling 12-month perspective, the number of commercial and industrial approvals remained steady at 33 units worth N$162.8 million, compared to the 33 units approved worth N$135.3 million over the corresponding period a year ago. Only 1 commercial and industrial unit worth N$25.0 million was completed in May.

As illustrated in the figure above and below, the cumulative value of building plans approved and completed continues to trend downward in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. Completed building plans decreased by 34.4% y/y in value terms to N$999.7 million on a 12-month cumulative basis. A total of 2,355 building plans to the value of N$1.79 billion were approved over the last 12 months which represents a decrease in value terms of 11.3% y/y and a 12.3% y/y decrease in the number terms. Additions to properties continue to contribute the majority of the cumulative approvals at 65.8% in number terms. The 12-month cumulative number of commercial and industrial approvals remains in the single digit territory which have been the case since June 2016, indicating a dearth of investment by enterprises. Building plans approved is a leading indicator of economic activity in the country and the above data implies that the Namibian economy is still showing signs of hardship.

Building Plans – April 2022

The City of Windhoek approved 173 building plans in April, representing a 12.6% m/m decline from the 198 building plans approved in March. In monetary terms, the approvals were valued at N$106.0 million, a 17.2% m/m contraction. Year-to-date 766 building plans worth N$519.0 million have gotten the nod, a decrease in number of 6.7% y/y, and 18.9% y/y in value terms. On a twelve-month cumulative basis 2,396 building plans worth N$1.84 billion were approved, a contraction of 8.1% in number, and 4.9% in value terms over the prior 12-month period. 78 building plans worth N$43.0 million were completed during the month.

Additions to properties once again made up the largest portion of approvals, in both number and value terms. For the month of April 114 additions to properties were approved with a value of N$63.0 million, compared to 133 approvals worth N$56.2 million in March. The data shows a single addition worth N$31.0 million being approved during the month, making up nearly half the total value of additions to properties approved during the month. Year-to-date 478 additions to properties have been approved with a value of N$240.4 million, a contraction of 6.5% y/y in number terms but an increase of 7.1% y/y in value terms. 35 additions worth N$10.3 million were completed in April.

New residential units were the second largest contributor to the number and value of building plans approved with 58 approvals registered in April, 5 fewer than in March. In value terms N$42.7 million worth of residential units were approved in April, a 2.1% m/m increase. On a year-on-year basis the value of approvals is however 67.1% lower than registered in April 2021. On a 12-month cumulative basis the number of residential units approved fell by 7.1% y/y to 820 and the number has been ticking down since September last year. 42 New residential units worth N$32.7 million were completed in April.

Only one commercial unit, valued at N$380,000 was approved in April. This brings the total number of commercial buildings approved in 2022 to 10, at a value of N$39.2 million. Bar one month, the number of approvals for commercial and industrial properties has been languishing in the single-digit territory since September 2016 and has an average approval rate of fewer than 3 approvals per month over the last 12 months. On a rolling 12-month basis, the number of commercial and industrial approvals increased to 35 units, worth approximately N$184.4 million, an increase of 67.2% in value terms from the period ending April 2021. One commercial building plan was recorded as completed in April, valued at N$65,000. 

As illustrated in the figure above, the cumulative value of building plans approved continues to trend downward in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms. As approvals is a forward-looking measure of expected construction activity this does not bode well for economic activity in the capital in general. Commercial and industrial construction activity remains extremely subdued. Going forward we expect lower value additions to properties to continue making up the majority of approvals.