Author Archives: IJGResearch

Building Plans – May 2015

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Building Plans May 2015

A total of 195 building plans to the value of N$365 million were approved by the City of Windhoek in May 2015. On a year to date basis 1,073 plans were approved with a value of N$937.7 million versus 1,104 plans valued at N$1,158 million last May. On a year to date basis the value of plans approved was down 19% although recovering during May. On a month to date basis the value of plans approved rose 232%. The large increase in the value of total plans approved during the month is attributed to the value of additions to existing property growing significantly. The below chart illustrates the elevated value of plans approved in May, with only two months during the last five years exhibiting a higher value of plans approved.

Building Plans May 2015 2While the 12 months cumulative number of plans approved is still well down from peak levels, the 12 month cumulative value of plans approved has rebounded due to the strong values in May. The 12 month cumulative number of plans approved fell to 2,815 from 2,834 in April, while the 12 month cumulative value of plans approved rose from N$1,879 million to N$2,079 million.

Building Plans May 2015 3In our view the construction sector will remain one of the leading growth and development sectors for 2015 in the Namibian economy, with both private sector and government having aggressive development plans. However, many such plans fall out of the Windhoek municipal area, and as such are not captured in the monthly building plan statistics.

 

BON MPC Expectations – 17/06/2015

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In the build-up to the Bank of Namibia’s MPC meeting, we always get a lot of calls from companies, individuals and the media, looking for a view on what the Bank is expected to do.

As we usually do, we discussed this in our morning meeting today, and I personally am of the view that give the recent data releases in the country, a hike is not warranted at the current point in time. The reasons for this view are simple:

  1. According to the NSA, GDP growth is slowing, coming down from 5.1% in 2013 to 4.7% in 2014.
  2. PSCE growth remains high, however growth in household borrowing has slowed notably, to just 12.1%, well below nominal GDP growth suggesting household deleveraging relative to income, is taking place. Concern in this regard is that installment credit growth remains high, at 19.2% – very much the current concern of the Bank of Namibia.
  3. Headline inflation has slowed to just 2.9%, the lowest level in many many years. While much of the demand-pull inflation remains a lot higher than this (often over 10%), the overall price pressure on Namibian’s is relatively low by historic standards.
  4. Foreign reserves appear to have stabilized, albeit at a relatively low level when assessed in NAD terms. Also, this position is likely to recover further when the country’s new mines start exporting.

As such, while the Bank of Namibia is likely to remain on a rate-normalization path over coming months, there is no urgent need for higher rates in the current period or immediate future. I would thus say that there is a 75% probability of rates remaining flat, and a 25% chance of a 25bp (0.25%) hike. That said, I am notoriously awful at calling the BON moves, so may well be way off.

Vehicle Sales – May 2015

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Veh May

A total of 1,603 new vehicles were sold in Namibia during May. This constitutes the lowest new vehicle sales figure since January 2014. Sales fell 3.3% year on year after growing by 4.4% year on year in April. On a month on month basis sales of new vehicles fell by 8% although year to date sales set a record high with 9,148 new vehicles sold during the first five months of 2015.

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The 12 month cumulative measure decreased to 22,611 from 22,664 in April, the first such decrease in 30 months. The magnitude of the decrease is very slight and does not indicate a material decline in the rate of growth of new vehicle sales.

Sales of passenger vehicles decreased by 15.4% month on month during May after sliding 4.4% month on month in April. On a year to date basis 4,080 new passenger have been sold eclipsing last year’s figure of 3,913. Once again Toyota and Volkswagen made up the bulk of new passenger vehicle sales, contributing 61% to the total, down from 70% in April. The roles have reversed however with Volkswagen outselling Toyota for the first time since June last year.

Total new commercial vehicle sales dropped a further 0.6% month on month in May after falling 29.7% in April. On a year to date basis the trend continues with record new commercial vehicle sales being recorded once again in May despite the comparatively poor figures recorded in April and May. Sales of new light commercial vehicles rose by 1.7% month on month, the only subsector to record an increase on a month on month basis. Sales of new medium commercial vehicles fell 45.9% month on month, with a total of 20 vehicles leaving the showroom floor. 57 new heavy commercial vehicles were sold during May, one less than in April. Sales of medium and heavy commercial vehicles on a month on month basis tend to be inconsistent and thus are not always indicative of the bigger picture. Both these categories have recorded record sales on a year to date basis during 2015 thus far.

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The Bottom Line

Recent relative weakness in new vehicle sales can largely be attributed to the high base set during the first three months of 2015. The cumulative year to date figures convey a truer picture, with all subcategories posting record sales. A strong consumer base supported by expansionary fiscal policy and real wage growth should see the growth trend continue, although at a slower pace due to an elevated base.