Letshego Holdings Namibia FY17 Results Review

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  • The expected total return in the table at the top of page 2 was changed to correspond with the expected return figure in the valuation paragraph below.
  • The number of access points was corrected on page 4.
  • The statement on page 5 noting that all of LHL’s subsidiaries were moved into the Letshego Mauritius Holding Company was removed as this was incorrect.
  • The statement on page 5 where management indicated that the group will wait until at least 2019 before selling a part of their share was amended.
  • The paragraph on page 7 discussing the company’s market share of public servant clients was revised and the analyst’s view on this was added.
  • Management noted that loan restructuring was client driven and not the company approaching the clients. This was added on page 7.
  • Management indicated that the entire loan book of LMFSN is pledged as security to the LHL Medium Term Note Programmes on the JSE and group borrowing from commercial banks in Botswana, and not on the Botswana Stock Exchange as noted in the financials.
  • The statement indicating that it appears to be a directive from LHL that funding should be sourced locally was removed on page 9.
  • The note on page 10 which stated that management will target larger companies, was changed to will focus on larger companies.
  • Dividends from Hollard back to LHN / LMFSN are declared twice a year, and not once a year as was previously stated on page 11.
  • The words “quite significantly” were removed in the statement of management’s expectation of cost-to-income increases on page 12.

 

 

New Vehicle Sales – June 2018

1,134 New vehicles were sold in June, a 23.5% m/m increase from the 918 vehicles sold in May. However on a year on year basis new vehicle sales is down 5.6% from June 2017 when 1,220 vehicles were sold. Year-to-date, 5,938 vehicles have been sold, 12.3% less than in the first half of last year, making 2018 the slowest year for car sales since 2012. Of the 5,938 vehicles sold this year, 2,668 were passenger vehicles, 3,002 were light commercial vehicles, and 268 were medium or heavy commercial vehicles. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, a total of 12,371 new vehicles were sold as at June 2018, a decrease of 14.1% from the 14,407 sold over the comparable period a year ago.

A total of 465 new passenger vehicles were sold during June, an increase of 24.3% m/m, but a drop of 10.4% y/y from the 519 passenger vehicles sold in June 2017. Year-to-date passenger vehicle sales amounted to 2,668, representing a decline of 11.9% from the first half of 2017. For the past 6 months, passenger vehicles have, on average, made up 44.9% of the total number of new vehicles sold.

Commercial vehicle sales displayed a similar trend, increasing by 23.0% m/m to 669 vehicles sold in June, but contracting by 1.9% y/y. Of the 669 commercial vehicles sold in June, 607 were classified as light, 26 as medium and 36 as heavy. On an annual basis, light commercial sales grew by 6.3%, medium commercial sales declined 7.1% while heavy and extra heavy sales have contracted by 56.6% albeit from a high base. On a twelve-month cumulative basis, commercial vehicle sales remain lackluster with light commercial vehicle sale decreasing by 14.0% y/y, medium commercial vehicle sales declining 2.8% y/y and heavy commercial vehicle sales contracting by 21.1% y/y.

Toyota continues to lead the market for new passenger vehicle sales in 2018 based on the number of new vehicles sold, claiming 37.5% of the market, followed by Volkswagen with a 27.6% share. They were followed by Hyundai and Kia at 5.4% and 4.8% respectively.

Toyota also remained the leader in the light commercial vehicle space with 60.1% market share, with Nissan in second place with a 14.1% share. Ford and Isuzu claimed 8.9% and 5.5% respectively of the number of new light commercial vehicles sold for the year. Hino leads the medium commercial vehicle category with 44.0% of sales while Scania remains number one in the heavy and extra-heavy commercial vehicle segment with 33.6% of the market share year to date.

The Bottom Line

The cumulative number of new vehicle sales continued to contract on a 12-month basis, amounting to 12,371 at the end of June. Year-on-year, the 12-month cumulative number of new vehicles sold has contracted by 14.1% from the 14,407 cumulative sales recorded in June 2017. The year-on-year decline in new vehicle sales figures suggests that vehicle owners are holding on to the vehicles they already own or purchasing second hand and imported vehicles. The continued slowdown in commercial vehicles sales remains worrisome as it is an indication of lower capital expenditure by corporates and lower business confidence in general.