{"id":5675,"date":"2015-06-17T08:43:42","date_gmt":"2015-06-17T07:43:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ijg-research.net\/?p=5675"},"modified":"2015-06-17T12:16:15","modified_gmt":"2015-06-17T11:16:15","slug":"bon-mpc-expectations-17062015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/bon-mpc-expectations-17062015\/","title":{"rendered":"BON MPC Expectations – 17\/06\/2015"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the build-up to the Bank of Namibia’s MPC meeting, we always get a lot of calls from companies, individuals and the media, looking for a view on what the Bank is expected to do.<\/p>\n

As we usually do, we discussed this in our morning meeting today, and I personally am of the view that give the recent data releases in the country, a hike is not warranted at the current point in time. The reasons for this view are simple:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. According to the NSA, GDP growth is slowing, coming down from 5.1% in 2013 to 4.7% in 2014.<\/li>\n
  2. PSCE growth remains high, however growth in household borrowing has slowed notably, to just 12.1%, well below nominal GDP growth suggesting household deleveraging relative to income, is taking place. Concern in this regard is that installment credit growth remains high, at 19.2% – very much the current concern of the Bank of Namibia.<\/li>\n
  3. Headline inflation has slowed to just 2.9%, the lowest level in many many years. While much of the demand-pull inflation remains a lot higher than this (often over 10%), the overall price pressure on Namibian\u2019s is relatively low by historic standards.<\/li>\n
  4. Foreign reserves appear to have stabilized, albeit at a relatively low level when assessed in NAD terms. Also, this position is likely to recover further when the country\u2019s new mines start exporting.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    As such, while the Bank of Namibia is likely to remain on a rate-normalization path over coming months, there is no urgent need for higher rates in the current period or immediate future. I would thus say that there is a 75% probability of rates remaining flat, and a 25% chance of a 25bp (0.25%) hike. That said, I am notoriously awful at calling the BON moves, so may well be way off.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    In the build-up to the Bank of Namibia’s MPC meeting, we always get a lot of calls from companies, individuals and the media, looking for a view on what the Bank is expected to do. As we usually do, we discussed this in our morning meeting today, and I personally \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5675","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-teamcommentary"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5675","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5675"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5675\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5677,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5675\/revisions\/5677"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5675"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5675"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5675"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}