{"id":30265,"date":"2021-12-16T07:53:15","date_gmt":"2021-12-16T05:53:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/?p=30265"},"modified":"2021-12-16T07:53:16","modified_gmt":"2021-12-16T05:53:16","slug":"ncpi-november-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/ncpi-november-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"NCPI November 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Namibia\u2019s annual inflation\nrate rose to 4.1% y\/y in November, with prices in the overall NCPI basket\nincreasing by 0.6% m\/m. Year-on-year, overall prices in eight of the twelve\ncategories rose at a quicker rate in November than in October, two categories\nexperienced slower rates of inflation and two categories posted steady\ninflation. Prices for services rose by 2.4% y\/y and prices for goods rose by\n5.4% y\/y. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Transport was the largest contributor to annual inflation\nin November, with prices in this category increasing by 1.5% m\/m and 11.9% y\/y.\nThis basket item contributed 1.6 percentage points to the annual inflation rate\nin November. Prices in all three sub-categories recorded price increases, with\nthe sharpest increase coming in \u201coperation of personal transport equipment\u201d.\nThis is due mostly to a 27.4% y\/y increase in the price of petrol and diesel.\nThis is the largest year-on-year price increase in fuel seen so far this year.\nAs was the case last month, this increase is explained by both base effects and\nan ongoing shortage in global oil supply. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Predictably, food\n& non-alcoholic beverages was the second biggest contributor to the annual\ninflation rate in October, contributing 1.0 percentage points.  Prices in this basket item increased by 0.3%\nm\/m and 5.2% y\/y. On a yearly basis all sub-categories, except for vegetables\n& tubers, registered price increases. Namibia\u2019s continued reliance on South\nAfrica for food imports means than whenever transport costs rise it is all but\ninevitable that the price of food will rise accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation rates\nin the remainder of the categories were relatively subdued. Alcohol &\nTobacco was the third largest contributor to November\u2019s annual inflation rate,\nwith prices increasing by 2.0% m\/m and 2.8% y\/y. The prices of alcoholic\nbeverages, the more heavily weighted of the two sub-categories in this basket,\nincreased by 2.3% y\/y while the price of tobacco products, the other\nsub-category, increased by 5.2% y\/y in November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The 4.1% y\/y\nannual inflation rate for November came in above IJG\u2019s average inflation\nforecast for the month. IJG\u2019s last estimate was that inflation would rise to\n3.8% y\/y in November. A hawkish shift in the Fed\u2019s tone has led to debate as to\nwhether the US central bank will taper asset purchases at a faster rate than it\nhad previously indicated. This, as well as a 25bps SARB rate hike in late November,\nlends credence to the argument that inflation risks both globally, and in\nsouthern Africa, remain to the upside. In our previous report our inflation\nmodel forecast average annual inflation for 2022 at 3.9% y\/y. A spike in\nNamibia\u2019s CPI and a deterioration in the rand has pushed that estimate up to\n4.2% y\/y. The estimated upper bound for average annual inflation in Namibia for\n2022 is now 5.2% y\/y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Namibia\u2019s annual inflation rate rose to 4.1% y\/y in November, with prices in the overall NCPI basket increasing by 0.6% m\/m. Year-on-year, overall prices in eight of the twelve categories rose at a quicker rate in November than in October, two categories experienced slower rates of inflation and two categories \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30265","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economicresearch","category-inflation"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30265","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30265"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30265\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30271,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30265\/revisions\/30271"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}