{"id":29920,"date":"2021-11-11T14:56:15","date_gmt":"2021-11-11T12:56:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/?p=29920"},"modified":"2021-11-11T14:56:17","modified_gmt":"2021-11-11T12:56:17","slug":"ncpi-october-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/ncpi-october-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"NCPI October 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The Namibian\nannual inflation rate rose to 3.6% y\/y in October of the back of a 3.5% y\/y increase\nin prices in September. Prices in the overall NCPI basket rose by 0.2% m\/m.\nYear-on-year, overall prices in five of the twelve categories rose at a quicker\nrate in October than September, five categories experienced slower rates of\ninflation and two categories posted steady inflation. Prices for services rose\nby 2.4% y\/y and prices for goods rose by 4.5% y\/y. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Prices in the transport category increased by 0.7% m\/m\nand 10.7% y\/y. As such, transport was the largest contributor to annual\ninflation in October, contributing 1.5 percentage points to the total 3.6% y\/y\ninflation rate. Prices in all three of the sub-categories recorded increases on\nan annual basis. Vehicle prices increased by 10.4% y\/y, public transport costs\nincreased by 3.5% y\/y and prices in the sub- category \u201coperation of personal\ntransport equipment\u201d increased by 13.6% y\/y. \nA 22.4% y\/y increase in the price of petrol and diesel is responsible\nfor much of this increase. This increase is due partially to base effects as\nthe price of fuel decreased by 11.3% m\/m and 12.5% y\/y in October 2020. A\nglobal shortage in oil supply is the other major factor contributing to\nincreases in the price of fuel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last year and a half have seen taxi fares at their\nmost volatile. The price of taxis increased by 3.9% y\/y in October. This comes\nafter two-consecutive months of 8.7% y\/y decreases. Looking further back, in\nMay 2020 taxi fares rose by a remarkable 13.6% m\/m, held steady for a few\nmonths and then declined by 11.3% m\/m in October 2020, according to the Namibia\nStatistics Agency. Another month-on-month spike in June 2021, a 14.6% m\/m\nincrease, was followed by a 9.9% m\/m decrease in August 2021. This volatility\nhas led to uncharacteristic oscillations in the year-on-year price movements of\ntaxi fares. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Food & non-alcoholic beverages was the second biggest\ncontributor to the annual inflation rate in September, contributing 1.0 percentage\npoint. Prices in this basket increased by 0.9% m\/m and 5.2% y\/y. All\nsub-categories registered price increases on a monthly basis. Additionally, all\nsub-categories except for one, vegetables & tubers, registered price\nincreases on a yearly basis. The largest year-on-year price increases came in\nthe oils & fats and fruit categories, with increases of 16.9% y\/y and 15.4%\ny\/y respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation for the rest of the categories were relatively\nsubdued, with the miscellaneous category being the third largest contributor to\nOctober\u2019s annual inflation rate, increasing by 0.1% m\/m and 6.6% y\/y. Surprisingly, the\ncategory alcoholic beverages & tobacco was not amongst the largest\ncontributors to annual inflation in October. Prices for alcoholic beverages\ndecreased by 0.9% m\/m and 0.1% y\/y while prices for tobacco products increased\nby 0.7% m\/m and 5.9% y\/y. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The 3.6% y\/y\nannual inflation rate is in line with IJG\u2019s average inflation forecast for the\nyear. IJG\u2019s inflation model predicted that annual inflation would be 3.5% y\/y\nin October. Inflation risks globally and in Namibia remain to the upside. Our\nmodel currently estimates that inflation will rise to 3.8% y\/y in November and\n4.0% y\/y in December.  Average inflation\nfor 2022 is forecast at 3.9% y\/y. The estimated upper bound for average annual\ninflation in Namibia for 2022 is 5.0% y\/y. Should the value of the rand\ncontinue to deteriorate, and if oil prices continue to rise, the forecast will\ninevitably trend towards the upper bound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Namibian annual inflation rate rose to 3.6% y\/y in October of the back of a 3.5% y\/y increase in prices in September. Prices in the overall NCPI basket rose by 0.2% m\/m. Year-on-year, overall prices in five of the twelve categories rose at a quicker rate in October than \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economicresearch","category-inflation"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29920"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29920\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29926,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29920\/revisions\/29926"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}