{"id":29622,"date":"2021-10-14T15:38:32","date_gmt":"2021-10-14T13:38:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/?p=29622"},"modified":"2021-10-14T15:38:33","modified_gmt":"2021-10-14T13:38:33","slug":"ncpi-september-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/ncpi-september-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"NCPI September 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The Namibian annual inflation rate rose to 3.5% y\/y in September after it had slowed to 3.4% in August. Prices in the overall NCPI basket rose by 0.3% m\/m. On a year-on-year basis, overall prices in five of the twelve categories rose at a quicker rate in September than August, five categories experienced slower rates of inflation and two categories posted steady inflation. Prices for services rose by 1.7% y\/y while prices for goods rose by 4.8% y\/y. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Transport, the third largest basket item by weighting, was the largest contributor to annual inflation, contributing 1.0 percentage point to the total 3.5% y\/y inflation rate. Prices in this category increased by 1.5% m\/m and by 7.5% y\/y in September. Prices in two of the three sub-categories recorded increases on an annual basis. Vehicle prices increased by 10.4% y\/y and prices in the sub-category \u201coperation of personal transport equipment\u201d increased by 11.6% y\/y. The price of public transport services decreased by 8.3% y\/y. Due to base effects, we are likely to see another year-on-year increase in this sub-category in October, which will put further upward pressure on the transport inflation print. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increases in transport costs can be attributed partly\nto increases in the price of oil. A lack of investment in the supply of oil\n(constructing new oil rigs and refineries), coupled with a sustained increase\nin global demand for energy means that prices for oil are expected to remain\nhigh in the short to medium-term. In summary, rising transport costs, driven by\nsustained increases in the price of oil, are likely to continue exerting upward\npressure on the inflation figure as we are likely to see second round effects\nshould transport prices remain elevated.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Food & non-alcoholic beverages was the second biggest\ncontributor to the annual inflation rate in September, contributing 0.9\npercentage points. Prices in this basket category increased by 0.1% m\/m and\n5.0% y\/y. All sub-categories registered price increases on an annual basis. The\nlargest increases were observed in the oils and fats subcategory, which\nincreased by 17.7% y\/y, and meat prices, which rose by 12.1% y\/y. On a monthly\nbasis, twelve of the thirteen sub-categories saw price increases while only the\nprice of vegetables decreased, by 2.3% m\/m.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The third largest contributor to the annual inflation\nrate in September was the alcohol & tobacco basket item, recording\ninflation of 0.5% m\/m and 3.0% y\/y. The prices of alcoholic beverages increased\nby 0.3% m\/m and 1.8% y\/y while the price of tobacco products increased by 1.1% m\/m\nand 8.6 % y\/y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The 3.5% y\/y\nannual inflation rate is in line with IJG\u2019s average inflation forecast for the\nyear. IJG\u2019s inflation model predicted that annual inflation rate would be 3.4%\ny\/y in September. Inflation risks remain to the upside. Elevated global\nshipping costs and the ongoing shortage of microchips and semiconductors pose a\nthreat to production in a variety of industries. IJG\u2019s inflation currently\npredicts that annual inflation will rise to 3.6% y\/y in November and 3.8% y\/y\nin December 2021. Average annual inflation for 2022 is forecast at 3.6% y\/y.\nGiven current data, the estimated upper bound for annual inflation in Namibia\nin 2022 is 4.7% y\/y. The current uncertainty in the global economy makes this\nis a highly tentative prediction.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Namibian annual inflation rate rose to 3.5% y\/y in September after it had slowed to 3.4% in August. Prices in the overall NCPI basket rose by 0.3% m\/m. On a year-on-year basis, overall prices in five of the twelve categories rose at a quicker rate in September than August, \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economicresearch","category-inflation"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29622"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29622\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29628,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29622\/revisions\/29628"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}