{"id":29173,"date":"2021-09-01T16:07:35","date_gmt":"2021-09-01T14:07:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/?p=29173"},"modified":"2021-09-01T16:07:42","modified_gmt":"2021-09-01T14:07:42","slug":"psce-july-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/psce-july-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"PSCE \u2013 July 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Overall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Private sector credit (PSCE) decreased by\nN$318.7 million or 0.30% m\/m in July. This decrease brings the total cumulative\ncredit outstanding to N$105.0 billion. On a year-on-year basis, private sector\ncredit increased by 2.72%. Over the past 12 months, N$2.78 billion in credit was\nextended to the private sector. Cumulative 12-month issuance is therefore up\n47% from the N$1.89 billion issued by this time in 2020. Individuals have taken\nup the bulk of this issuance with debts over the past 12 months summing to\nN$2.18 billion or 78% of the total debt issuance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Credit\nExtension to Individuals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Credit\nextension to individuals increased by 3.69% y\/y, but fell by 0.05% m\/m in July.\nThis month-on-month decrease was driven by 1.0% m\/m and 0.4% m\/m contractions\nin other loans and advances (credit card debt, personal- and term loans) and\ninstalment credit, respectively, offsetting a 0.2% m\/m increase in mortgage\nloans. However, instalment credit expanded by 0.6% y\/y in July. Mortgage loans\nextended to individuals increased by 4.4% y\/y, slightly slower than the 4.9%\ny\/y increase recorded in June. Individual overdrafts rose by 8.7% y\/y, but by\nonly 0.1% m\/m. This comes after overdrafts fell 0.9% m\/m in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Credit\nExtension to Corporates<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Credit\nextended to corporates contracted by 0.52% m\/m while increasing by 1.78% y\/y in\nJuly. This year-on-year increase in corporate credit extensions is in keeping\nwith the trend in 2021, with only low single digit increases recorded thus far.\nCorporate overdrafts rose by 0.4% m\/m and 8.7% y\/y in July. Instalment credit\nincreased by a more moderate 0.7% m\/m and 0.6% y\/y. Mortgage loans decreased by\n1.7% m\/m but rose by 4.4% y\/y this July. This month-on-month decrease is\nunsurprising as new corporate mortgage loan issuance has been sporadic throughout\n2021, with only January, April and June seeing month-on-month increases, while\nFebruary, March and now July have seen month-on-month decreases in issuance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Banking\nSector Liquidity <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The overall liquidity position of Namibia\u2019s\ncommercial banks was near enough unchanged in July, rising by only N$555,000 to\nan average of N$552.8 million. July saw a marked decrease in the balance of\nrepo\u2019s outstanding \u2013 as the starting balance outstanding of N$1.65 billion was\ncut to N$1.02 billion by the end of the month. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Reserves and Money Supply<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank of Namibia\u2019s (BoN) latest figures\nshow Broad Money Supply contracting by N$2.28 billion or 1.8% y\/y in July after\nregistering successive year-on-year contractions in May and June. As of the end\nof July, money supply stands at N$121.5 billion. The central bank\u2019s stock of\ninternational reserves rose by 2.1% m\/m to N$42.6 billion at the end of July. The\nBoN attributes the boost to the inflow of SACU receipts during the period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After large increases in credit extension\nto the private sector in the second half of 2020, with total outstanding private\nsector debt rising from N$102.2 billion in June 2020 to N$105.4 billion in\nDecember, PSCE growth in 2021 has been more subdued.  Total PSCE has hovered between N$105.6\nbillion and N$105.0 billion this year. The marginal 0.30% m\/m decrease in July\ncame off the back of a 0.29% increase the previous month. Without making too\nmany bold inferences from the data it suffices to say that macro-economic\nconditions remain uncertain in Namibia.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We expect the BoN to mirror South Africa\nand hold interest rates steady for the remainder of 2021 to aid overindebted\nconsumers and to attempt to stimulate the economy. Namibian individuals\ncontinue to take on the most debt in this low-interest rate environment. Until\nlarger businesses are in a financial position, and develop an appetite, to take\non more debt it is unlikely that low interest rates and moderate increases in\nprivate sector credit extension will have a major positive impact on the macro\neconomy. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Overall Private sector credit (PSCE) decreased by N$318.7 million or 0.30% m\/m in July. This decrease brings the total cumulative credit outstanding to N$105.0 billion. On a year-on-year basis, private sector credit increased by 2.72%. Over the past 12 months, N$2.78 billion in credit was extended to the private sector. \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economicresearch","category-psce"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29173"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29173\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29180,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29173\/revisions\/29180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}