{"id":28978,"date":"2021-08-13T10:00:16","date_gmt":"2021-08-13T08:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/?p=28978"},"modified":"2021-08-17T11:40:13","modified_gmt":"2021-08-17T09:40:13","slug":"ncpi-july-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/ncpi-july-2021\/","title":{"rendered":"NCPI July 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The annual\nNamibian Inflation rate slowed marginally to 4.0% in July, following the 4.1%\ny\/y increase in June. The prices in the overall NCPI basket increased by 0.2%\nm\/m. On a year-on-year basis, the overall prices of seven of the twelve basket\ncategories rose at a quicker rate in July than in June, while three categories\nexperienced slower rates of inflation and two categories posted steady\ninflation. Prices for goods increased 5.4% y\/y while prices for services increased\nby 2.2% y\/y in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The transport and food categories were the largest\ncontributors to annual inflation, making up 1.4 and 1.1 percentage points respectively.\nThese were the main drivers of inflation in July. Food prices fell 0.4% m\/m but\nrose 6.1% y\/y, with all sub-categories except one increasing on an annual\nbasis. Despite a bumper harvest for some vegetable products, Namibia\u2019s reliance\non South Africa for food imports is reflected in the increased prices of meat,\noil and fats, and fruit. Increased transport prices have resulted from the\nrecent upward trend in global oil prices and the depreciation of the Namibian\ndollar against the US dollar, making imports more expensive.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices contributed 0.3\npoints to annual inflation, as they did in June, increasing by 0.8% m\/m and 2.5%\ny\/y in July. The miscellaneous category also contributed 0.3 percentage points\nto inflation alongside transport and housing, water and electricity. Driven by\nhigher fuel prices, transport costs have increased by 1.0% m\/m and 10.6% y\/y in\nJuly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The 4.0% y\/y\nincrease in annual inflation is towards the upper end of IJG\u2019s inflation\nforecast for the year. The main driver of inflation in the last couple of\nmonths has been food inflation which has been averaging 6.2% y\/y since the\nbeginning of the year. While risks remain to the upside, we see these as muted\nin the short-term in what is currently a very accommodative global monetary\nenvironment. Higher oil prices remain the largest risk in the short-term, while\ndomestic and South African fiscal deterioration pose medium-term risks as debt\nlevels increase unchecked, eating into the already limited productive portion\nof expenditure. IJG\u2019s inflation model currently forecasts an average inflation\nrate of 3.7% y\/y in 2021 and in 2022. Given that economic growth is expected to\nbe low, and that inflation will likely remain muted, we expect monetary policy\nto remain accommodative over the short- to medium-term.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The annual Namibian Inflation rate slowed marginally to 4.0% in July, following the 4.1% y\/y increase in June. The prices in the overall NCPI basket increased by 0.2% m\/m. On a year-on-year basis, the overall prices of seven of the twelve basket categories rose at a quicker rate in July \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economicresearch","category-inflation"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28978"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28978\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29032,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28978\/revisions\/29032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}