{"id":26213,"date":"2020-11-12T16:03:12","date_gmt":"2020-11-12T14:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/?p=26213"},"modified":"2020-11-12T16:03:14","modified_gmt":"2020-11-12T14:03:14","slug":"ncpi-october-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/ncpi-october-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"NCPI \u2013 October 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Namibian annual inflation rate remained relatively steady at 2.3% y\/y in October, following the 2.4% y\/y uptick in prices in September. Prices in the overall NCPI basket increased by 0.1% m\/m, as inflationary pressure remains muted. On a year-on-year basis, overall prices in six of the twelve basket categories rose at a quicker rate in October than in September, while four categories recorded slower rates of inflation and two categories posted steady inflation. Prices for goods increased by 3.3% y\/y while prices for services rose by 0.9% y\/y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As in September, food & non-alcoholic beverages were\nthe largest contributors to annual inflation in October, accounting for 1.3\npercentage points of the total 2.3% annual inflation rate. Prices in this\ncategory rose 0.7% m\/m and 7.1% y\/y, the highest level since March 2017. Prices\nin all thirteen sub-categories recorded increases on a year-on-year basis with\nthe largest increases being observed in the prices of fruits which increased by\n16.1% y\/y and vegetables which increased by 14.1% y\/y. Price increases in meat\nproducts and fish also remained elevated at 9.3% y\/y and 8.5% y\/y respectively.\nThe prospects for the Southern African region to receive normal to above-normal\nrainfall for the 2020-21 cropping season are currently high as La Ni\u00f1a\nconditions is expected to be sustained until at least February 2021. Should\nthis materialise, food inflation should slow down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The alcoholic beverages and tobacco basket item was the\nsecond largest contributor to the annual inflation rate in October. The basket\nitem recorded a price increase of 1.4% m\/m and 4.3% y\/y during the month.\nPrices for alcoholic beverages increased at a rate of 1.0% m\/m and 3.4% y\/y,\nwhile tobacco prices rose by 3.2% m\/m and 8.4% y\/y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The education basket recorded inflation of 7.0% y\/y, with\nthe cost of pre-primary education growing at a rate of 5.6%. Primary and\nsecondary education recorded price increases of 9.3% y\/y, while tertiary\neducation prices rose by 5.3% y\/y. None of the three subcategories printed\nprice increases on a month-on-month basis. The fact that the basket item with\nthe eighth largest weighting (at 3.6% of the CPI basket) is one of the largest\ncontributors of the annual inflation rate is an indication of just how low\ninflationary pressure is at the moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We believe that inflationary\npressure will remain relatively contained at around current levels in the\nshort-term. IJG\u2019s inflation model forecasts an average inflation rate of 2.2%\ny\/y in 2020 and 3.4% y\/y in 2021. One of the larger risks to our inflation\nforecast is global oil prices. While there has been an uptick in oil prices in recent\nweeks, it is improbable that it would return to levels seen at the beginning of\nthe year anytime soon as the global demand for oil remains muted, especially\nsince several European countries are implementing renewed lockdown measures. The\nlikelihood of higher rental prices in the next 12 months also remains low,\ngiven the financial pressure many consumers are under. With these being the\nlarger categories of the inflation basket, we do not foresee any sudden\nincreases in Namibian inflation in the short-term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Namibian annual inflation rate remained relatively steady at 2.3% y\/y in October, following the 2.4% y\/y uptick in prices in September. Prices in the overall NCPI basket increased by 0.1% m\/m, as inflationary pressure remains muted. On a year-on-year basis, overall prices in six of the twelve basket categories \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economicresearch","category-inflation"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26213"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26213\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26219,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26213\/revisions\/26219"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}