{"id":25975,"date":"2020-10-19T12:03:58","date_gmt":"2020-10-19T10:03:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/?p=25975"},"modified":"2020-10-19T12:03:59","modified_gmt":"2020-10-19T10:03:59","slug":"ncpi-september-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/ncpi-september-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"NCPI \u2013 September 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Namibian annual inflation rate remained at 2.4% y\/y in September, with prices in the overall NCPI basket increasing by 0.3% m\/m. On a year-on-year basis, overall prices in six of the twelve basket categories rose at a quicker rate in September than in August, with five categories recording slower rates of inflation and one category recording an increase consistent with the prior month. Prices for goods increased by 3.1% y\/y while prices for services rose 1.5% y\/y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The food & non-alcoholic beverages category remained\nthe largest contributor to annual inflation in September, accounting for 1.2\npercentage points of the total 2.4% annual inflation rate. The category\nrecorded price increases of 1.2% m\/m and 6.6% y\/y. Prices in all thirteen\nsub-categories recorded increases on a year-on-year basis with the largest\nincreases being observed in the prices of fruits which increased by 17.9% y\/y\nand vegetables which increased by 12.2% y\/y. Price increases in meat products\nand fish also remained elevated at 9.4% y\/y and 9.0% y\/y respectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices, making up approximately 12.6 of the overall inflation basket, was the second largest contributor to the annual inflation rate in September, with prices of the basket item increasing by 3.8% y\/y. On a month-on-month basis prices of the basket item rose by 0.4% m\/m. Prices for alcoholic beverages rose by 0.2% m\/m and 3.4% y\/y, while tobacco prices increased by 1.2% m\/m and 5.6% y\/y. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transport, one of the largest inflation basket categories, continues to experience relatively low inflation at 1.3% y\/y. This is largely as a result of low oil prices, which remain down in Rand terms when compared to a year ago. A notable exception however is the 13.4% y\/y inflation on public transportation services as a result in the increase in bus and taxi fares due to campaigning by the Namibia Transport and Taxi Union (NTTU) in light of government\u2019s restriction on the number of passengers allowed per vehicle. This highlights just one of the ways in which lockdown measures have increased costs on the public, and often specifically on the more vulnerable members of society. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Global growth\nremains under pressure and monetary policy remains very accommodative, pointing\nto low global inflation expectations. Monetary easing by developed markets has\nreached previously unknown levels and to a large extent enabled developing\nmarkets and emerging economies to follow suit, albeit to a lesser extent. The\nBoN noted in its August Monetary Policy Statement that most developing markets\nand emerging economies have cut interest rates at their most recent monetary\npolicy meetings, with the notable exception of China which kept rates steady. The\ninflation environment is expected to remain benign in most markets which should\nunderpin a global economic recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflationary\npressure in Namibia remains weak and continues to trend below South African\ninflation. IJG\u2019s inflation model forecasts an average inflation rate of 2.3%\ny\/y in 2020 and 3.7% y\/y in 2021. While risks remain to the upside we see these\nas muted in the short term in what is currently a very accommodative global\nmonetary environment. Oil prices and a further escalation of the US-China trade\nwar remain the largest risks in the short-term, while domestic and South\nAfrican fiscal deterioration pose medium-term risks as debt levels increase\nunchecked, eating into the already limited productive portion of expenditure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Namibian annual inflation rate remained at 2.4% y\/y in September, with prices in the overall NCPI basket increasing by 0.3% m\/m. On a year-on-year basis, overall prices in six of the twelve basket categories rose at a quicker rate in September than in August, with five categories recording slower \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economicresearch","category-inflation"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25975","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25975"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25975\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25981,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25975\/revisions\/25981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}