{"id":25020,"date":"2020-07-15T16:22:45","date_gmt":"2020-07-15T14:22:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/?p=25020"},"modified":"2020-07-15T16:22:46","modified_gmt":"2020-07-15T14:22:46","slug":"ncpi-june-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/ncpi-june-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"NCPI \u2013 June 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The Namibian annual inflation rate remained at 2.1% in June, unchanged from May. On a month-on-month basis, prices increased by 0.2%, following the 0.4% m\/m increase in May. Overall, prices in five of the twelve basket categories rose at a faster annual rate than during the preceding month, four at a slower rate and three grew at a steady pace. Price for goods rose by 2.5% y\/y in June, while prices for services grew by 1.6% y\/y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The food & non-alcoholic beverages category displayed\nprices decreases of 0.3% m\/m, but an increase of 4.7% y\/y in June, making it\nthe largest contributor to annual inflation, accounting for 0.84 percentage\npoints of the total 2.1% annual inflation rate.  Prices in twelve of the thirteen\nsub-categories recorded increases on a year-on-year basis. The largest\nincreases were observed in the prices of fruit which increased by 21.2% y\/y and\nvegetables which increased by 11.7% y\/y. The price of bread and cereals saw\nprice decreases of 0.9% y\/y. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The alcoholic beverages and tobacco basket item was the\nsecond largest contributor to the annual inflation rate in June, with prices of\nthe basket item increasing by 1.4% m\/m and 3.6% y\/y. Prices for tobacco\nproducts decreased by 0.3% m\/m, but increased 3.9% y\/y. The prices of alcoholic\nbeverages meanwhile rose by 1.8% m\/m and 3.6% y\/y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The miscellaneous goods & services basket recorded inflation\nof 0.1% m\/m and 6.3% y\/y, and contributed 0.32 percentage points to the overall\nannual inflation figure. Only two subcategories showed price increases on a\nmonth-on-month basis, with personal effects increasing by 0.4% m\/m and personal\ncare rising by 0.2%. Prices in all the subcategories remained steady during the\nmonth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The NSA\u2019s regional CPI data shows that on a monthly basis\nprices increased by 0.2% in the northern zone 1, 0.2% in the central zone, and\n0.1% in the mixed eastern, southern and western zone. On an annual basis the\nnorthern region recorded the highest inflation rate at 2.3% y\/y in June, followed\nby the central zone at 2.1% y\/y and the mixed zone 3 at 1.8% y\/y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Namibian annual\ninflation at 2.1% in June remains benign as economic activity remains weak\nafter the relaxation of the lockdown restrictions, and is on par with South\nAfrica\u2019s May inflation figure of 2.1% y\/y. South Africa\u2019s inflation has\nbreached the lower end of the SARB\u2019s 3-6% target range in April, and remained\nat or below the 4.5% midpoint for 18 consecutive months. If the SARB expects\ninflation to trend at current levels for some time, it could decide to cut\ninterest rates further. The market currently expects the SARB to cut rates by\n25-50 basis points at its July MPC meeting next week, although a 25-basis point\ncut is more likely in IJG\u2019s view. Regardless of the outcome, we expect the BoN\nto follow the SARB\u2019s at its August MPC meeting, as Namibian inflation will\nlikely remain muted for at least the rest of the year. IJG\u2019s inflation model\nforecasts an average inflation rate of 2.2% y\/y 2020 and 3.8% in 2021. The\nbiggest risk to this forecast is fuel price increase due to the steady increase\nin the international oil price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Namibian annual inflation rate remained at 2.1% in June, unchanged from May. On a month-on-month basis, prices increased by 0.2%, following the 0.4% m\/m increase in May. Overall, prices in five of the twelve basket categories rose at a faster annual rate than during the preceding month, four at \u2026 Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economicresearch","category-inflation"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25020"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25020\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25027,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25020\/revisions\/25027"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25020"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25020"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ijg.net\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}